United States: President Donald Trump, who has long been vocal about his resolve to broker peace in Ukraine within a single day, now finds his vision entangled in geopolitical thorns, over four months into his second term. The battlefield remains unforgiving, and the diplomatic stage is no less tumultuous.
This Monday, Moscow floated yet another overture for peace talks in Istanbul, but with both Russia and Ukraine steadfast in their conflicting claims over land and sovereignty, the prospects of fruitful negotiations remain distant and dim.
President Trump, visibly irked by the stalemate, has hinted at the possibility of disengaging entirely. His growing impatience is evident in his blunt remark: if neither Zelenskyy nor Putin budge, he might “just back away” and let the chaos fester.
Seth Jones, helming the Defense and Security desk at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), cautioned that such a retreat would shift the pendulum dramatically toward Moscow’s favor. He warned, too, that Europe lacks the ability to swiftly replicate the US’s intelligence and military input.
Conversely, RAND analyst Samuel Charap contended that Trump reducing personal involvement wouldn’t necessarily be catastrophic—unless it meant halting crucial military support to Kyiv. Then, the consequences could become dire.
As per an American intelligence briefing from April, nearly 790,000 Russian soldiers have perished or been wounded since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Ukrainian forces, per President Zelenskyy, have endured over 400,000 casualties of their own.
Still, according to Jones, Russia appears more inclined to chase conquest through attrition rather than concede anything at the bargaining table.
Trump, even during his campaign, diverged from Biden’s unflinching support for Ukraine. On a podcast before his re-election, he pointed fingers at Zelenskyy, asserting the Ukrainian leader could have prevented the war altogether. “The war’s a loser,” Trump said, also blaming Biden for igniting the conflict.
February: Hope and Humiliation
In the wake of his January inauguration, Trump initiated phone diplomacy with both Putin and Zelenskyy, later announcing an intent to meet the Russian leader in Saudi Arabia.
“I believe peace is within reach,” Trump declared confidently in the Oval Office. “Putin wants peace. Zelenskyy wants peace. I want peace. I just want the killing to stop.”
Yet, instead of a presidential summit, Secretary of State Marco Rubio ended up in talks with Russia’s Sergey Lavrov. The exclusion of Ukraine from this early diplomatic tango signaled a marked pivot from the Biden administration’s policy.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth later hinted Ukraine might need to accept the permanent loss of lands seized by Russia, including Crimea, annexed in 2014. Such a concession was unthinkable for Kyiv.
A US proposal offering future aid in exchange for access to Ukraine’s mineral resources was initially rebuffed by Zelenskyy, but he ultimately journeyed to Washington on February 28. That visit, immortalized in a tense Oval Office moment, saw Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance lambast Zelenskyy for showing “a lack of gratitude.”
“You don’t hold the cards. We do,” Trump told him. To which Zelenskyy, unshaken, responded, “I’m not playing cards. I’m being serious, Mr President.”
Afterward, Trump took to Truth Social to scold the Ukrainian leader, accusing him of disrespecting American generosity and refusing to engage in peace unless the odds were stacked in his favor.
March: Cold Calculations
Within days of Zelenskyy’s DC visit, Trump froze essential military aid and intelligence transfers to Ukraine. The move rattled Kyiv’s battlefield position, potentially handing an edge to Moscow.
Ukraine offered a 30-day truce if Russia ceased its aggression—a limited proposition that Putin met with partial acceptance, halting attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid.
Talks in Jeddah soon followed. The US agreed to resume aid, while Russia and the US separately reached a Black Sea ceasefire, ensuring commercial vessels could traverse safely and that maritime warfare wouldn’t be waged under false flags.
RAND’s Charap praised these steps, noting that Trump’s pressure campaign was at least nudging the parties toward diplomacy.
April: Thin Hopes and Thinner Patience
Russia announced a 30-hour ceasefire around Easter, which Ukraine accepted. But mutual accusations of breach soon followed, dimming the promise of peace.
America then floated a more ambitious proposal—freezing frontlines, relinquishing Kyiv’s NATO bid, and allowing Russia to retain occupied territories. Both sides rejected it outright. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would never accept Russian dominion over Crimea, and Putin’s camp found the proposal too lop-sided.
Trump, angered by Zelenskyy’s public dismissal, blasted him online for prolonging the “killing field.” Yet he also berated Putin for ongoing missile barrages on Kyiv: “Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”
May: Flickers of Dialogue Amid Fire
May 16 marked a breakthrough of sorts—Russian and Ukrainian envoys convened face-to-face in Istanbul for the first time since the war erupted. The outcome was modest: a mass prisoner exchange but little else.
Follow-up talks were planned. Still, the battlefield roared on. On May 25, Russia unleashed its most devastating missile assault to date on Ukrainian cities.
Trump voiced clear disgust. “I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin,” he told reporters. “He’s sending rockets into cities and killing people. I don’t like it at all.”
Pressed on whether sanctions might return to the table, he answered without hesitation: “Absolutely.”
As Ukraine prepared for round two of the Istanbul talks, Zelenskyy accused Russia of stalling by withholding its peace proposal. And again, Jones of CSIS emphasized that any future deal would likely require Kyiv to make painful concessions, especially abandoning NATO dreams and ceding claims over Russian-held zones.
So far, Zelenskyy has shown no appetite for surrender.
Conclusion
Donald Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war swiftly now appears tangled in a mire of competing interests, national pride, and wartime scars. Despite moments of progress, both Kyiv and Moscow remain locked in their convictions—and the peace Trump seeks seems just as elusive today as when he stepped back into the Oval Office.
